Drugs group Lundbeck's shares hit by profit warning

COPENHAGEN (Reuters) - Shares in Danish drugs firm Lundbeck fell to their lowest level in over 12 years on Wednesday after it cut its profits forecast for the next two years as European sales slow and spending on new products rise to combat generic competition.
The company has already warned that earnings would stall until 2015 due to cheap generic competition for its existing drugs, meaning new products will be vital for future earnings.
But Chief Executive Ulf Wiinberg said on Wednesday that the negative impact on revenue from healthcare reforms in Europe had also been bigger than expected in the last two years and that slowing European sales and generic competition were hurting.
As a result the company said operating profits would fall further than previously forecast in 2014 as it increases investments in its late-stage drugs development pipeline and product launches.
Lundbeck is working to find new drugs to replace lost revenue from products coming off patent protection such as its antidepressant Cipralex, which is sold as Lexapro in the United States and Japan, and Alzheimer's drug Ebixa.
Wiinberg said 2014 would be the company's peak investment year for the new products pipeline, offering it a solid foundation for growth starting in 2015.
"You only get one chance to launch a product and we have to do it well," Wiinberg said at a briefing for investors.
He was commenting after the company warned in a statement that it now expects revenue in 2014 of about 14 billion Danish crowns ($2.5 billion) and an operating profit of between just 0.5 billion and 1 billion crowns.
Analysts have on average been forecasting a profit of over 2.5 billion crowns for 2014 on turnover of over 14.7 billion crowns, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S Estimates.
Two years ago Lundbeck predicted its annual revenues over the period 2012-2014 would exceed 14 billion crowns a year while earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) would exceed 2 billion crowns a year.
Next years' revenue is now forecast to be in the range of 14.1 billion and 14.7 billion crowns to produce an operating profit of 1.6 billion to 2.1 billion crowns, with no change to the company's forecast for 2012.
Analysts' forecasts for this year are for operating profit to drop 41 percent to 1.99 billion crowns on revenue down 8 percent at 14.7 billion crowns, while for 2013 they predict a profit of 2.26 billion crowns on revenue of 14.5 billion crowns.
Lundbeck's shares were trading down 17 percent at 79.90 crowns at 12.44 p.m. British time, dropping below 80 crowns for the first time since April 2000.
"In the short term, earnings are under pressure," Sydbank analyst Soren Hansen said.
Lundbeck said that it expects a dividend payout ratio of about 35 percent of net profits in the 2012-14 period. Last year it paid 3.49 crowns on basic earnings per share of 11.64 crowns, a payout ratio of 30 percent.
Analysts have been predicting a 27-30 percent cut this year to 2.53-2.28 crowns, according to Thomson Reuters StarMine data.
But a number of analysts doubt that revenue from new products will be enough to secure revenue growth in 2015, compensating for lost revenue from Cipralex, Lexapro and Ebixa which together accounted for about 70 percent of group revenue in 2011.
Lundbeck is working on new products such as antidepressant Brintellix in Europe and the United States for launch at the end of next year or start of 2014, as well as alcohol dependency treatment Selincro in Europe in mid 2013.
"It is difficult to see revenue from the smaller products compensating for the large products," said Hansen.

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New Mauritius Hotels posts 25 pct drop in full-year profit

PORT LOUIS (Reuters) - Luxury hotels group New Mauritius Hotels (NMH) reported a 25 percent fall in full-year pretax profit, citing higher finance costs and fewer tourists, and forecast a 15 percent drop in first-quarter earnings.
Ranked among the Indian Ocean island's most-traded stocks, NMH said on Wednesday that pretax profit for the year to September 30 fell to 603 million Indian rupees, with earnings per share down 20 percent at 3.60 rupees.
The hotels group said that it won't pay a dividend this year, given the difficult conditions in the local tourism industry. Last year it paid a dividend of 2.50 rupees per share.
Shares in the group, which owns eight hotels in Mauritius and one in the Seychelles, closed unchanged at 52 rupees before its results were released.
Tourism, a traditional cornerstone of the Mauritius economy, has been forecast to account for 7.9 percent of domestic product in 2012, down from 8.4 percent last year. The downturn in tourism has been caused largely by economic turmoil in the euro zone - the sector's key source market.

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FedEx: cost plan can counter sluggish growth

NEW YORK (AP) — FedEx is more pessimistic about the U.S. economy than it was three months ago, but more assured of its own ability to grow earnings.
The world's second-largest package delivery company lowered its economic forecast for the U.S., saying that there remains a lot of uncertainty for the company and the country.
Its forecast for the current quarter, which incorporates the critical holiday season, falls short of Wall Street expectations.
But FedEx maintained its forecast for the full fiscal year ending in May, counting on a massive cost reduction plan and a slightly more optimistic view of growth overseas. Shares rose 2.6 percent in afternoon trading.
FedEx Corp. posted earnings of $438 million, or $1.39 per share for the quarter that ending in November, compared with $497 million, or $1.57 per share, a year ago. That was below the $1.41 per share that Wall Street was expecting, according to a poll of analysts by FactSet.
Revenue rose to $11.1 billion from $10.6 billion previously, as the company scaled back its operation to better match demand and some of its raised rates. Analysts forecast revenue of $10.84 billion.
Growth in the company's freight and ground operations boosted results, but FedEx reported "persistent weakness" in its core express network. Operating income in that segment fell 33 percent. FedEx and its larger rival UPS Inc. have both seen consumers and businesses opt for slower shipping options to cut costs.
FedEx said on Wednesday that it expects earnings will be between $1.25 and $1.45 per share in the third quarter. Analysts that follow the company were predicting per-share earnings of $1.45.
The company, based in Memphis, Tenn., also said it expects to earn between $6.20 and $6.60 per share for the year ending in May, excluding any charges from the company's buyout plan. Wall Street is looking for $6.34.
Earlier this month FedEx said it will offer some employees up to two years pay to leave, starting next year. The voluntary program is part of an effort to cut annual costs by $1.7 billion within three years. The plan also includes cutting aircraft and underused assets.

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Different challenges in Central African Rep., Mali

BANGUI, Central African Republic (AP) — Two land-locked, desperately poor African countries are gripped by rebellions in the north that have left huge chunks of both nations outside of government control. Neighboring countries are rushing troops into Central African Republic only a few weeks after rebels started taking towns but Mali's government is still awaiting foreign military help nearly one year after the situation there began unraveling. Here's a look at why there's been quick action in one country, and not in the other.
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THE INSURGENTS
The simple answer lies in the vastly different challenges faced by intervention forces. Northern Mali is home to al-Qaida-linked militants who are stocking weapons and possess stores of Russian-made arms from former Malian army bases as well as from the arsenal of toppled Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi. The local and foreign jihadists there are digging in and training forces in preparation for jihad and to repel an invasion. Central African Republic, by contrast, is dealing with home-grown rebels who are far less organized and have less sophisticated weapons.
The numbers of troops being sent to Central African Republic are relatively small — Republic of Congo, Cameroon and Gabon are each sending about 120 soldiers. The rebels stopped their advances toward the capital on Dec. 29, perhaps at least in part because of the presence of the foreign troops who have threatened to counterattack if the rebels move closer to Bangui, the capital. In Mali, it will take far more than the 3,000 African troops initially proposed for a military operation to be successful in ousting the militants, analysts say.
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THE MISSION
The military objectives are also a stark contrast. In Central African Republic, neighboring nations have a mandate to help stabilize the region between rebel-held towns and the part of the country that is under government control. The intervention force will fire back if fired upon, but so far are not being asked to retake the towns already in rebel hands.
The mission in Mali that foreign forces are slowly gearing up for is far more ambitious. It involves trying to take back a piece of land larger than Texas or France where militants are imposing strict Islamic law, or Shariah. Making things even more complicated there: A military coup last year that created chaos and enabled the rebels to more easily take territory has left the country with a weak federal government and the country's military with a broken command-and-control structure, and with its leaders reluctant to give real power to the civilians.
"In Mali you have a very undefined mission. What does it mean to retake the country and give it back to government forces that were not able to hold it in the first place?" noted Jennifer Cooke, director of the Africa program at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Central African Republic's situation "is a more limited, defined and frankly somewhat easier mission in the military sense," she said.
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THE TERRAIN
Northern Mali is a scorching desert that is unfamiliar to many of the troops who would be coming from the West African regional bloc of countries known as ECOWAS. By contrast, Central African Republic's neighbors already have been pulled into past rebellions in the country.
Chadian forces helped propel President Francois Bozize into power in 2003 and they have assisted him in putting down past rebellions here.
"These forces — particularly the Chadians — have been there before," Cooke said. "They know the players, they have an interlocutor in Bozize however fragile he is. This is familiar territory to them."
The Economic Community of Central African States, or ECCAS, also already had established a peacekeeping force in Central African Republic known as MICOPAX.
"From the beginning, they knew that they needed to have troops on the ground. MICOPAX was already there, had already been deployed there. There was already a structure in place," said Thierry Vircoulon, project director for Central Africa at the International Crisis Group.
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DIFFERING MOTIVATIONS
The rebels in Central African Republic are made up of four separate groups all known by their French acronyms — UFDR, CPJP, FDPC and CPSK. They are collectively known as Seleka, which means alliance in the local Sango language, but have previously fought one another. For instance, in September 2011 fighting between the CPJP and the UFDR left at least 50 people dead and more than 700 homes destroyed. Insurgent leaders say a 2007 peace accord allowing them to join the regular army wasn't fully implemented and are demanding payments to former combatants among other things. Rebel groups also feel the government has neglected their home areas in the north and particularly the northeast, said Filip Hilgert, a researcher with Belgium-based International Peace Information Service.
In northern Mali, the Islamist rebels are motivated in large part by religion. Al-Qaida fighters chant Quranic verses under the Sahara sun , displaying deep, ideological commitment. They consider north Mali as "Islamic territory" and say they will fight to the death to defend it. They also want to use the territory to expand the reach of al-Qaida-linked groups to other countries. This would seem to make other countries more motivated to intervene in Mali than in Central African Republic, but the challenges are so steep and convoluted that an intervention mission is still on the drawing board.

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EU says Iran not responded to nuclear talks proposal

 The European Union has proposed a time and place for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, but Iran has yet to respond, an EU spokesman said on Friday.
Iran said earlier on Friday it had agreed to resume talks in January with six major powers - represented by the EU - but the EU spokesman said Tehran had not yet replied to proposals made on December 31.
"We offered dates and a venue, but we are still waiting to hear back from Iran," said Michael Mann, spokesman for EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton, who leads negotiations on behalf of the United States, Russia, France, Britain, Germany and China.
Mann declined to say which dates and venue the EU had proposed.
The countries involved in the talks - particularly in the West - want to rein in Iran's uranium enrichment work - which Tehran says is for peaceful purposes only but which produces material which, if processed further, can be used to make nuclear bombs.
There was no breakthrough in three rounds of talks since April 2012. But neither side has been willing to break off totally, partly because of concerns this could lead to war if Israel attacks Iran - something it has threatened to do if the Islamic Republic looks close to getting nuclear weapons

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Pakistani girl shot by Taliban leaves UK hospital

LONDON (AP) — Three months after she was shot in the head for daring to say girls should be able to get an education, a 15-year-old Pakistani hugged her nurses and smiled as she walked out of a Birmingham hospital.
Malala Yousufzai waved to a guard and smiled shyly as she cautiously strode down the hospital corridor talking to nurses in images released Friday by the Queen Elizabeth Hospital Birmingham.
"She is quite well and happy on returning home — as we all are," Malala's father, Ziauddin, told The Associated Press.
Malala, who was released Thursday, will live with her parents and two brothers in Britain while she continues to receive treatment. She will be admitted again in the next month for another round of surgery to rebuild her skull.
Experts have been optimistic that Malala, who was airlifted from Pakistan in October to receive specialized medical care, has a good chance of recovery because the brains of teenagers are still growing and can better adapt to trauma.
"Malala is a strong young woman and has worked hard with the people caring for her to make excellent progress in her recovery," said Dr. Dave Rosser, the medical director for University Hospitals Birmingham. "Following discussions with Malala and her medical team, we decided that she would benefit from being at home with her parents and two brothers."
The Taliban targeted Malala because of her relentless objection to the group's regressive interpretation of Islam that limits girls' access to education. She was shot while returning home from school in Pakistan's scenic Swat Valley on Oct. 9.
Her case won worldwide recognition, and the teen became a symbol for the struggle for women's rights in Pakistan. In an indication of her reach, she made the shortlist for Time magazine's "Person of the Year" for 2012.
The militants have threatened to target Malala again because they say she promotes "Western thinking," but a security assessment in Britain concluded the risk was low in releasing her to her family. British police have provided security for her at the hospital, but West Midlands Police refused to comment on any security precautions for Malala or her family going forward.
Pakistani doctors removed a bullet that entered her head and traveled toward her spine before Malala's family decided to send her to Britain for specialized treatment. Pakistan is paying.
Pakistan also appointed Malala's father as its education attache in Birmingham for at least three years, meaning Malala is likely to remain in Britain for some time.
Hospital authorities say Malala can read and speak, but cited patient confidentiality when asked whether she is well enough to continue her education in Britain.
While little has been made public about Malala's medical condition, younger brains recover more fully from trauma because they are still growing. Dr. Anders Cohen, chief of neurosurgery at the Brooklyn Hospital Center in New York, estimated she might recover up to 85 percent of the cognitive ability she had before — more than enough to be functional.
"She'd be able to move on with life, maybe even become an activist again," said Cohen, who is not involved in Malala's treatment.
In the Swat Valley, people reacted with joy at the news of her release. Family and friends handed out sweets to neighbors in Malala's hometown of Mingora.
"Obviously we all are jubilant over her rapid recovery, and we hope that she will soon fully recover and would return back to her home town at an appropriate time," said Mahmoodul Hasan, Malala's 35-year-old cousin. Like Malala's father, he runs a private school in Mingora.
But the Swat Valley remains a tense place. Only last month, several hundred students in Mingora protested plans to have their school named after Malala, saying it would make the institution a target for the Taliban.
Malala's father vowed to return to Pakistan with his family once Malala is fully recovered.
"I thank the whole of Pakistan and all other well-wishers for praying for her and our family," he said. "What I am doing here is all temporary, and God willing we all will return to our homeland.

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Why so much secrecy around Chávez's health? Venezuela's not alone.

The government of Hugo Chávez has, for the first time, characterized the Venezuelan leader’s health condition as “severe” following his Dec. 11 surgery in Cuba for a recurrence of cancer.
But the announcement Thursday night is unlikely to put an end to the rumor mill that has swirled in the past three weeks in the Andean country.
While everyone is worked up over President Chávez's health status, his administration is not necessarily an anomaly in keeping relatively mum. From dictators who are unable to envision their countries without them at the helm, to leaders of western democracies who attempt to pursue political projects despite medical setbacks, secrecy is often the norm.
“It is a long-standing pattern,” says Jerrold Post, who co-wrote "When Illness Strikes the Leader: The Dilemma of the Captive King" and is director of the political psychology program at George Washington University.
Recommended: Hugo Chávez 101: a quiz about Venezuela's president
'TELL US THE TRUTH'
Norm or not, the lack of news has kept people talking. Type in #DiganLaVerdadSobreChavez, or #TellUsTheTruthAboutChavez, and the trending Twitter topic reveals the state of speculation that has become the state of Venezuela since Chávez traveled to Havana for treatment last month.
No one has heard from him since.
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He’s fine. He’s dead. He’s in a coma. He’s on life support. He’s recovering. You name it – any scenario you wish to believe has been posited. And that’s largely because no one knows. Since Chávez first announced he was ill, in 2011, no medical report has detailed exactly what he faces or what his prognosis is. The government has said that it is keeping the public informed of his health status, as the president himself wishes, but in reality their reports have raised more questions than answers, even as they accuse the opposition of spreading rumors in a form of “psychological war.”
The opposition, for their part, is outraged, demanding more specificity, that the Venezuelan people be told the “whole truth” of the status of the country’s leader.
WHAT DOES SECRECY TELL US?
From former US presidents Ronald Reagan to Franklin Roosevelt, the states of health of leaders was carefully curated by administrations. In one oft-cited case, French President Francois Mitterrand hid his cancer diagnosis from the public for over a decade before being forced to step down. “Yet every year the doctor dutifully said he was in fine health,” says Dr. Post.
In some cases the secrecy reflects different historical social mores about privacy and the public's right to information. And in many cases it was also an effort not to minimize a leader’s mandate.
But in an age of social media, such secrecy is not tolerated – or even possible. The recent health statuses of other Latin American leaders facing illness, for example, including the presidents of Paraguay and Brazil, have been promptly released to the public.
In fact, Pedro Burelli, a former member of the executive board of Petróleos de Venezuela and today a political analyst in Washington who is critical of Chávez, says that the leader chose treatment in Cuba, where there is no free press, for the guarantee of secrecy.
“The natural tendency would have been for him to go to Brazil,” Mr. Burelli says, as it boasts among the best cancer treatment centers in Latin America. It’s also where other leaders in the region have been treated.
But in a democracy with a robust press, Burelli says, “Chávez feared that information [about his condition] would filter out.” Instead, he chose "sub-optimal care" in Cuba, in Burelli’s opinion, in order to keep his medical condition tightly concealed.
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IMAGINING THE FUTURE
In fact, Fidel Castro temporarily stepped down in 2006 and permanently in 2008, after his own health crisis was disclosed only as an intestinal problem and has been a “state secret” ever since. Over the years, Twitter has alighted with speculation of his health, especially after a long period out of the spotlight. Inevitably he has appeared again, either on television or with his name on a written column in the state-run Granma newspaper.
Mr. Pope says that in the case of leaders such as Castro or Chávez, the secrecy is linked to an inability to imagine their countries without them. “We are talking about [an individual], who has totally entwined his own identity with that of Venezuela,” Pope says.
It is possible that the newest announcement on Chávez’s health status by Venezuela’s Minister of Communication and Information, Ernesto Villegas, represents a move toward transparency on the part of the government. But now Venezuelans are speculating why he made the announcement. And he also failed to mention the scheduled Jan. 10 inauguration of Chávez, who won a fourth term in office in Oct. 7 elections.
Instead, Mr. Villegas condemned the "psychological war unleashed by transnational media about the health of the Head of State, with the ultimate goal of destabilizing the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela,” he said.
Twitter accounts are likely to stay as active, and as speculative, until the government gives more clarity.

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